Welcome Back, Cmdr Hadfield

Chris Hadfield of the RCAF and, until a few days ago, commander of the International Space Station has been safely returned to the planet via Soyuz. As well as a skit on David Bowie’s Space Oddity, instantly famous on YouTube, he has been encouraging school science – see this video for a fascinating demonstration of the significance of surface tension in the absence of gravity. But best of all, he has been sending back amazing images of earth via Twitter (@Cmdr_Hadfield) so, bearing in mind the geographical interests of this blog, here are two of SW England showing the distinct Cornwall and Devon end of the peninsula and the city of Plymouth and its Sound in more detail. The Dartmoor uplands are top right.

And another of the area around Bordeaux in SW France clearly showing the new Jacques-Chaban-Delmas bridge (built in three years and opened on 18 March 2013):

Cmdr Hadfield, a francophone, commented “Bordeaux, France, si célèbre pour ses grands vins”, so here is part of a relevant map (for more details, see here):

 

 

 



UPDATE 23 MAY 2013

Cmdr Hadfield is continuing to tweet, although he seems to be busy with post-flight medical check-ups etc. He recently sent another image from his collection showing the coast of SW England (Dorset to the east of the region):

and he commented “The Isle of Portland looks like an interesting place - the type I'd like to visit now that I'm back on Earth”, which it is (and Chesil Beach to the west), and I hope he gets there sometime.

Wine growers bonanza postponed?

The other day, the Lex column in the Financial Times (£) speculated about the consequences of China cutting the import duty it currently imposes on wine (48% by value):

Presumably the Chinese, who currently drink about a bottle per head per year, would not suddenly become Vatican-level topers, who lead the world table at 73 bottles annually, according to data from California’s Wine Institute. Even British (29 bottles) or American (13 bottles) habits would seem a stretch. The Japanese, after all, consume fewer than three bottles a head. Still, even if China started drinking at that rate the country would suck in another 3bn bottles from the international market, or about a sixth of the world’s current production excluding China’s own output, from the 3 per cent it drinks now. And what if mainland China suddenly took to wine like Hong Kong, at nine bottles a head? In that scenario more than a third of the world’s wine supply would be needed.

This argument seems to ignore the fact that the GDP per head in Japan is rather higher than in China at present – according to the IMF US$ 45,870 and US$ 5417 respectively in 2011 according to the IMF. Without getting into the technicalities of this particular statistic and the pitfalls of purchasing power parities etc, it seems reasonable to assume that the majority of adults in Japan who want to drink wine probably can do so, whereas in China many people at present earning about a US$ a day could not afford to open a bottle of wine, even if it were widely available.

In The Times (£) recently, David Miliband, currently exercised about fish stocks and as a former Foreign Secretary having such things at his fingertips, said “there are 300 million people in the middle class in China”. So it seems fairly likely that it is these people, about 25% of the population, who are consuming most of the wine, and at a rate of between four and five bottles a year per middle class head, which is closer to that of their kin in Hong Kong, where they are keener on the stuff than the Japanese.

To explore this argument further I downloaded the data which seems to have underpinned the Lex article, in the form of wine consumption and production statistics for 2010 from the Wine Institute (WI) of California. As far as wine consumption per head is concerned for the countries mentioned by Lex, these figures have been extracted from WI’s Table 7 (adjusting their “Liters” to the equivalent 75cl bottles) and are shown below together with Lex’s interpretation:

However, Lex’s figures regarding China’s consumption under different scenarios (labelled A to C here) are more difficult to reconcile. WI’s Table 3 states that China’s population is 1,338,612,968 and that in 2010 China produced 425 million litres of wine out of a world total of 26,384.872 million litres. On that basis the tables below can be constructed. For both Japan and Hong Kong the WI actual litres consumption figure (B1 and C1) and Lex’s bottles consumption as a rounded figure (B2 and C2) are shown.

 

 

Taking Lex’s assertions in turn:

"the 3 per cent it drinks now"
China drinks 3.5% of world production but its imports represent less than 2% (A)

“if China started drinking at [the Japanese] rate the country would suck in another 3bn bottles from the international market, or about a sixth of the world’s current production excluding China’s own output”
At a rounded three (B2 rather than the actual 2.51 at B1) bottles per head China would need to import an extra 2.8 bn bottles (actual 2.1 bn) which would be 10% (actual 8%) of world production excluding China’s own.

“China … like Hong Kong, at nine bottles a head … more than a third of the world’s wine supply”
At the actual 8.63 Hong Kong level (C1) or the rounded nine bottle per head level (C2), China would be consuming close to but less than a third of world production excluding China’s own. Only at the rounded nine bottle per head level (C2) and measured as a percentage of global production including China’s own would the figure exceed 33.3%.

Returning to the point above, if current wine drinking in China is assumed to be confined to the 300 million “middle class”, their per head consumption must be just over three litres per head (D1). If these people moved to actual Hong Kong levels of consumption (D2) just over 8% of external global wine production would be required. If the middle class doubled in size to 600 million and drank wine at the Hong Kong rate (D3), just over a sixth of global wine production would have to be imported.  So the Lex bonanza for wine producers may be a little way off as yet.

As always, there are other factors to be considered. Firstly, Chinese domestic wine production is on an upward trend, growing by over 10 million litres a year between 2007 and 2010 according to the WI. Secondly, however, Chinese wine is being exported and is now available at a price from Berry Brothers and Rudd in London (much in half-bottles!). Thirdly, Chinese investors have been buying out producers in France, (and no doubt elsewhere), as Nick Stephens has been monitoring in his Bordeaux Undiscovered blog.

Chateaux Latour-Laguens purchased by Longhai International in 2008

The Economist on France

The Economist on 17 November included a special report on France, So much to do, so little time, which on the cover of all its editions turned into the more sensational, The time-bomb at the heart of Europe. Not surprisingly it didn’t go down too well in France but a few days later appeared well-timed when the country was downgraded by Moody’s from Aaa to Aa1, outlook continuing negative.

The author of the report, John Peet, acknowledges the help and insights from 28 people and there are signs of autant de têtes, autant d'avis. For example on page 9 we are told:

There is so much more to France than Paris. Cities like Bordeaux, Lille, Lyon, Nice and Toulouse count for a lot both economically and politically.

and on page 10:

Paris dominates France, politically and economically.

The point to be appreciated by a British reader is that Paris and the Ile-de-France have nothing like the dominance of London and the South East in the UK. There is a real howler on page 6:

Even French vineyards are investing in expensive machines to replace human grape pickers.

Whoever wrote that should take a look at the entry on mechanical harvesting in Jancis Robinson’s The Oxford Companion to Wine. Machines were introduced in France in the 1980s and are used in all but the most prestigious vineyards.  Elsewhere the vines are spaced and kept to a height to allow the machines to traverse them (see this blog’s Background and below).

Otherwise The Economist can be expected to get its economic facts right and the report makes a good case for there currently being too much government spending and too heavy a burden of social costs on employers, even for France. On the other hand, as the survey admits, the country has superb infrastructure, a substantial part of it owned by the government, an economic fact of life the survey ignores. Also, as it points out, none of the large French banks had to be bailed out by the state. I sometimes think that the UK’s circumstances would be much more like those of France if Mrs Thatcher had lost the election in 1983 (or 1984), as could well have been the case if the Falklands War had not happened or had ended differently.  Perhaps whether this was for better or for worse in the long term is still to be discovered.

Toulouse-Lautrec at the Courtauld

What a relief, after the visual bombardment of the good, bad and calculatedly commercial at the Royal Academy Summer Exhibition, to go on to the Courtauld Gallery’s current show, Toulouse-Lautrec and Jane Avril: Beyond The Moulin Rouge, which runs to 18 September.  Not only has the Courtauld secured a loan of the Art Institute of Chicago’s At the Moulin Rouge as the highlight, but the Gallery provides additional ophthalmic balm in the form of an opportunity to wander through its permanent collection of late 19th and 20th century art.

As might be expected, the Gallery has produced an exceptionally informative webpage about the current exhibition. But there is scope to add a minor footnote here relating to one of this blog’s preoccupations: SW France. Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec was born in 1864 in Albi (Tarn départment in the Midi-Pyrenees region). In 1883 his mother, Comtesse Adèle, bought a château, Malromé, in the Gironde département (Aquitaine region). Lautrec visited frequently and died there in 1901. He was buried nearby in Verdelais.

'La Comtesse Adèle de Toulouse-Lautrec dans le salon du Château de Malromé'

Musée Toulouse-Lautrec, Albi

Château Malromé has produced wine since the 1600s. Currently it makes red wines (including Cuvée Comtesse Adèle) designated as Bordeaux supérieur, and whites, Bordeaux Blanc. There are about 40ha of vines. Some of the Malromé labels incorporate an image of Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec.

PS In the unlikely event that the anonymous donor who sponsored the Courtauld exhibition should read this – your generosity is much appreciated.

So what’s a puisatier?

I haven’t posted for a while, having been in SW France sorting out our house with Mrs WI. We had decided, in a triumph of optimism over experience, to swap the roles of an over-sized salle de bain and a diminutive cuisine. The maçons and other artisans departed as we arrived, leaving a lot to get straight and on-line purchases from Darty (same group as Comet in the UK) to be installed. However, the worst is over and there is now time to look about.

François Mitterand became Socialist President of France 30 years ago (21 May 1981) and was in office until 1995. To judge from the way the media are marking the anniversary, a president of his stature is sorely missed. Certainly Nicolas Sarkozy is poorly regarded. Whether Dominique Strauss-Kahn (“DSK”) will return from the IMF to be the Socialist candidate for the presidential election next year is a hot topic. His wife’s (Anne Sinclair’s) blog, Deux ou trois choses vues d'Amérique, is listed below. The French left is notoriously schismatic, making it easy for the usually united right to deliver for their candidate, but Sarko is currently being outflanked on the far right by Mme Le Pen. If DSK were able to persuade the left to sink their differences and back him, he might stand a chance against a split right.

The most popular French film in France at the moment is La Fille du Puisatier (The Well Digger's Daughter). Maurice Pagnol (1895-1970) was a novelist and film-director now best-remembered for two of his novels, Jean de Florette and Manon des Sources, which he had made as one film in 1952. However, it was Claude Berri’s two films of the novels in 1986 which achieved international success. In 1940 Pagnol wrote the screenplay for, and directed, the original La Fille du Puisatier which has now been filmed by, and stars, Daniel Auteil. The plot is a variation on nice girl gets pregnant by Mr Right’s mate Mr Wrong, but will it all come right with Mr Right?

Well-diggers are likely to be in demand in SW France after a dry winter, and an exceptionally dry and warm spring. The vines, like cherries, strawberries, and so on are about three weeks ahead of normal.

Cabernet Sauvignon

Things have come on quickly, even by comparison with their state in February.

Engineers and Technicians Revisited

Almost a year ago, Dick Olver, Chairman of BAE Systems, told the FT that gas fitters, photocopier repairmen and other technicians should stop calling themselves engineers. BAE Systems is Britain’s biggest employer of professional engineers, who account for just over half the company’s 33,000-strong UK workforce. An estimated two million people in the UK are in jobs where they sometimes call themselves engineers, even though they may have only minimal technical qualifications. Olver said the wide use of “engineer” in Britain to describe a range of technical jobs damaged the reputation of real engineers, making it less enticing to young people as a career.

“Britain suffers from a language problem in that the word ‘engineer’ is applied to a lot of different people who do a range of jobs. Professional engineers need to take ownership of the brand and keep it for themselves.”

Mr Olver said he would start trying to change people’s perceptions of the term “engineer” by talking to Sam Laidlaw, chief executive of Centrica, which employs 8,500 gas fitters at its British Gas subsidiary. But Centrica is unlikely to co-operate with his campaign. “We plan to continue to use ‘engineer’ to describe our employees who fit and maintain central heating systems,” the company said. “The word underlines the fact that these people receive a lot of training and are well qualified.”

A few days later the managing director of Pimlico plumbers, Charlie Mullins, wrote to the FT in a similar vein to Centrica:

Dick Olver’s comments that gas fitters should stop calling themselves engineers are simply ludicrous. At my company, Pimlico Plumbers, we have 133 professional engineers who are highly qualified with years of training and experience. They often have people’s lives in their hands – dealing with boilers and gas is a dangerous job. Why should they stop calling themselves engineers? This is just downgrading their highly skilled jobs. Maybe it should be the other way round, and the pen pushers should stop calling themselves engineers.

However successful his business, Mullins' ignorance of (or just ignoring) what is involved in acquiring an engineering degree and then chartered membership of an engineering institution is regrettable. No doubt every day hundreds of Londoners are grateful for the services of his employees, but perhaps he could have looked at the policy issues being addressed by the Royal Academy of Engineering, and considered how extensive his staff’s contribution would be.

It being Britain, nothing seems to have come out of Olver’s protest and probably never will. But the issue he raised makes an appropriate subject for the first Western Independent post to come from South West France. Here the invariably competent and courteous artisan who comes to repair a washing machine or gas boiler is a technicien. For him to call himself an ingénieur would invite being laughed at (or in some parts of Europe prosecution), the term being reserved for those who have been through academic and professional training. In the case of a particularly prestigious group, such as les ingénieurs de l’armement, this may well mean a five-year course at one of the grandes écoles, sometimes followed by a Masters at MIT or similar in the USA.

There are other long-standing anglo-saxon confusions, particularly relating to healthcare. In France a chemiste is a scientist following in the footsteps of Lavoisier, not a pharmacien. Then there is Doctor, as general practitioners of medicine (GPs) are traditionally called in the UK. In France a GP is a médecin (arzt in german, by the way). A docteur en médecin is someone who has a doctorat, a higher degree. The UK equivalent would be an MD. These seem to be more common in fiction (eg Dr Watson) than in fact – in a fairly healthy life I think I’ve come across one MD, but lots of Doctors with first degrees (MB). In the last few years, I’ve noticed that dentists have taken to styling themselves Dr, which seems a bit presumptuous, though I know one who was awarded a PhD for research in restorative dentistry.

Of course, nothing will be done to regularise “doctor” and “chemist”, any more than “engineer”. Does it matter? Well, it is an aspect of a reluctance in the UK to take high-level skills and professional education seriously by comparison with other countries, particularly where STEM (science, technology, engineering ,maths) is concerned. The adverse effects on our prosperity of muddling along as usual are too long-term for politicians to care about, but inexorable for the rest of us.

If any technicienne, pharmacienne, femme médecin or artzin has read this far, please accept my apologies – these omissions are only for brevity.

The Background to this blog shows vines in Entre-Deux-Mers (Gironde) in late summer, shortly before harvest and after a lot of growth. By way of contrast, and less familiar, this is what a vineyard looks like after pruning in February.

Vines in Entre-Deux-Mers, February 2011