21 January 2015

Jean-Pierre & Luc Dardenne’s ‘Two Days, One Night’

Two Days, One Night (Deux jours, une nuit) was released in the UK in August 2014 – I missed it then but I was glad I caught up. It had a limited release in the US at Christmas time. 

The Dardenne brothers come from Wallonia, the French-speaking southern part of Belgium, where they write and direct fiction films through their production company, Les Films du Fleuve. Two Days, One Night is a simple story – Sandra (Marion Cotillard) is a factory worker who is having to spend a frantic summer weekend lobbying her co-workers to turn down a bonus so that she can keep her job. Will this appeal to fraternité come off? Sandra has a loyal and supportive husband but she has to fight a personal problem as well as her external one.

As in their The Kid with a Bike (Le gamin au vélo) the Dardennes portray ordinary lives – those who, according to Valerie Treiweiller, François Hollande in France calls les sans dents, (the toothless) and the Labour party leadership (eg Miliband and Harman*) in the UK have recently taken to calling ‘everyday people.' Two Days, One Night is described as being a French-Italian-Belgian production. Its language is French and the Dardennes’ work is set firmly in the tradition of social realism – nouvelle vague or even Italian neorealism. Life in working class Belgium is tough but nothing like as hard as it was in post-war Italy.

One of the best films I’ve seen in the last year.


* On BBC1 The Andrew Marr Show 18 January 2015, no transcript unfortunately.




19 January 2015

Former Prime Ministers – some statistics


What uncertain times these are. In the Independent on Sunday on 18 January, Iain Dale, political commentator and former Conservative politician, provided his prediction of the outcome of the May general election. It was based on a painstaking consideration of the circumstances of each of the 650 constituencies in the UK parliament, after drawing together whatever local knowledge, polling evidence and so on that he could find. This approach had served Dale well “when I got the European election results bang on and made the most accurate predictions in Cameron’s Cabinet reshuffle”. On the same day in the Sunday Times, Peter Kellner, political commentator, president of the pollster YouGov and husband of a Labour politician provided his forecast. Their data is in the table below, my additions in italics:


Of course, both men may choose to revise their forecasts in the coming weeks and who knows how robust such predictions would be in the event of, say, a terrorist outrage days before the election. But in both neither of the two main parties is expected to achieve an overall majority, which would suggest that some form of coalition is likely. However, according to Kellner, David Cameron will be leader of the largest party whereas Dale implies that  Ed Miliband, the leader of the Labour party, will be Prime Minister and heading the coalition.




So we may have four former Prime Ministers, with Cameron joining John Major, Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Or perhaps there will still be three at the end of May. This set me thinking about the number of ex-PMs over the years, hence the chart on the left from 1870 to the current day.



It turns out that for most of the last 100 years, the presence of three or four ex-PMs has been the norm. There only being one, as was mostly the case from 1945-55, was unusual. Only in Gladstone’s final administration was there none, for four years following Disraeli’s death in 1881.  Prime Ministers tend to be long-lived – only one born since 1800 died under 70, Bonar Law, who died soon after leaving office in 1923. The only PM to die in office was Campbell-Bannerman in 1908 at the age of 71.



The mean age at death of the 21 deceased PMs born since 1800 has been just over 81 years, but for the five born and deceased since 1900, just over 88. The latter include one woman, Margaret Thatcher, who died at 87, bringing the average down, contrary to actuarial expectation. Presumably to get the job at all requires a good constitution, but comparison should be made with the life expectancy of upper middle class males (mostly) over 40, not males in general at birth.


On average PMs have lived for 14.8 years after leaving office for the last time (Wilson, Churchill, and Baldwin are among those who returned to office). This becomes 17.2 years if Campbell-Bannerman (see above) and Chamberlain and Bonar Law, who both died within six months of leaving office, are excluded. (The arrows are for Major, above Blair, both to the left of Brown, all on-going of course).


The longest lived was Rosebury – more correctly Archibald Primrose, 5th Earl of Rosebery, probably the most interesting PM statistically. At 45 he was the youngest person to become PM until Blair and later Cameron. His period in office was only 15 months and his estate is thought to have been the largest –so far. The younger they enter office, as has increasingly been the case, the younger PMs will be when they leave:


As far as the next election is concerned, there would be nothing surprising about either outcome as PM in terms of the consequent number of ex-PMs.  However, it seems very likely that the number will go up over the decades ahead. As the table below shows, despite the impression of premierships having become longer, over successive three decade periods, there have been about the same number of office-holders:


However, if the leaving PMs are getting younger and they live to about 90, there will, before long – probably the late 2020s, be six or even seven ex-PMs to be invited to lunch or dinner with the sovereign!


NOTES 

1. Dates of birth, death and office are from Wikipedia.
2. The “quick and dirty” method for dates before 1900 in Excel was used.
3. Photograph at top, 1985: PM Thatcher, ex-PMs Callaghan, Douglas Home, Macmillan, Wilson, Heath (left to right).
4. Second photograph, 2012: PM Cameron, ex-PMs Major, Blair, Brown (left to right), Thatcher was too ill to attend.
5.  Any errors will be corrected if provided as comments.